J.D. Power forecasts hybrid- and battery-electric vehicles will represent 7.3% of global auto sales in 2020

A new report from J.D. Power and Associatesestimatescombined global sales of hybrid-electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles (PHEVs) and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) will total 5.2 million units in 2020, or some 7.3% of the 70.9 million passenger vehicles forecasted to be sold worldwide by that year. Global HEV, PHEV and BEV sales in 2010 are forecasted to total 954,500 vehicles, or 2.2% of the 44.7 million vehicles projected to be sold through the end of 2010.

The report, titled “Drive Green 2020: More Hope than Reality” considers various factors affecting the future potential for “green” vehicles in the world’s largest automotive markets. These factors include market trends, regulatory environment, consumer sentiment and technology development in these markets.

Interest in HEVs and BEVs is driven by a dramatic reduction in or elimination of tailpipe emissions, and the increased fuel economy of these vehicle types helps reduce the world’s dependence on oil. The drawback to these technologies is that fossil fuels (principally oil and coal) are still used to produce the electricity that powers these vehicles, thereby eliminating some of the potential gains. Therefore, it is not clear whether there would be a substantial reduction in emissions by switching to these new powertrain technologies. In addition to questions about dependence on oil and reduction in emissions, battery packs are prohibitively expensive to manufacture on a large scale, and the disposal of depleted battery packs presents yet another environmental challenge. Perhaps most importantly, there are major hurdles that must be overcome regarding battery-based vehicles to ensure consumer acceptance.

—“Drive Green 2020: More Hope than Reality”

According to the report, it will be difficult to convince large numbers of consumers to switch from conventionally powered passenger vehicles to HEVs and BEVs. A consumer migration to alternative powertrain technologies will most likely require either one of the following scenarios, or some combination of these scenarios:

• A significant increase in the global price of petroleum-based fuels by 2020;
• A substantial breakthrough in green technologies that would reduce costs and improve consumer confidence; and/or
• A coordinated government policy to encourage consumers to purchase these vehicles.

Based on currently available information, J.D. Power concluded that none of these scenarios are likely during the next 10 years.

While considerable interest exists among governments, media and environmentalists in promoting HEVs and BEVs, consumers will ultimately decide whether these vehicles are commercially successful or not. Based on our research of consumer attitudes toward these technologies—and barring significant changes to public policy, including tax incentives and higher fuel economy standards—we don’t anticipate a mass migration to green vehicles in the coming decade.

—John Humphrey, senior vice president of automotive operations at J.D. Power and Associates

A different take
Oliver Hazimeh, partner and head of the global e-Mobility practice at PRTM, a global management consulting firm, has a different perspective on the prospects for electrified transportation.
“PRTM believes that it’s not a matter of if—but how fast and to what extent—different electrified vehicles will be adopted as we approach an electrification tipping point.
“PRTM estimates that there are different degrees of electrification with different penetration rates, i.e. by 2020 PRTM estimates that EVs will have a 4-5% adoption rate; plug in hybrid electric vehicles will be at 5-6%; and hybrid electric vehicles will reach 20%.

Breakdown of Global HEV and BEV Sales by 2020. Of the 5.2 million HEVs, PHEVs and BEVs forecasted to be sold worldwide in 2020, some 3.9 million units (about 5.5% of the market) are expected to be HEVs and PHEVs according to the J.D. Power and Associates global forecast numbers for the third-quarter of 2010. The leading markets are the United States (1.7 million units), Europe (977,000 units), and Japan (875,000 units). China is expected to sell fewer than 100,000 HEVs in 2020.

Of the 1.3 million BEVs projected to be sold worldwide in 2020 (about 1.8% of the market), sales in Europe will account for 742,000 units; sales in China will account for 332,000 units; and the United States and Japan should each account for sales of approximately 100,000 BEVs in 2020.

Consumer interest in alternative powertrains, pre- and post introduction of price premium. Click to enlarge.

Consumers. While consumers have a variety of concerns about HEVs and BEVs, J.D. Power said, more important are the personal financial implications of deciding to purchase an alternative-energy vehicle. While many consumers around the world say they are interested in HEVs and BEVs for the expected fuel savings and positive environmental impact they provide, their interest declines significantly when they learn of the price premium that comes with purchasing these vehicles.

While most consumers say they want to create a smaller personal carbon footprint, research shows this consideration carries relatively low weight in the vehicle purchase decision.

—“Drive Green 2020: More Hope than Reality”

The overall cost of ownership of HEVs and BEVs over the life of the vehicle is also not entirely clear to consumers, and there is still much confusion about how long one would have to own such a vehicle to realize cost savings on fuel, compared with a vehicle powered by a conventional internal combustion engine (ICE). The resale value of HEVs and BEVs, as well as the cost of replacing depleted battery packs, are other financial considerations that weigh heavily on consumers’ minds.

Finally, the report says, it is clear from research in the world’s largest automotive markets that buyers of hybrid and electric vehicles occupy a unique demographic niche. Buyers of HEVs and BEVs are generally older, more highly educated (possessing a postgraduate degree), high-income individuals who have a deep interest in technology, or who like to be among the early adopters of any new technology product. As a result, it is not clear that HEVs and BEVs will appeal to the general population.

Government Regulations.While the governments of the world’s largest automotive-producing nations have schedules in place for improving fuel economy and reducing exhaust emissions, there is little consensus about the timing or manner in which these objectives are to be achieved. Some governments are promoting HEVs, others are focusing on BEVs, and still others are considering additional options.

According to Humphrey, the lack of consistency in regulations across markets is causing global automakers to hedge their options by seeking alliances and technology-sharing agreements. The heavy fixed costs associated with developing multiple powertrain options simultaneously are prohibitively expensive. When combined with the projected lower sales volumes of these products, collaboration between auto companies is almost a necessity to control costs and remain competitive.

One unpredictable aspect of the 2020 outlook is how markets would be affected if more stringent and consistent legislation is adopted that supports specific technologies. In particular, China has the ability to move quickly, invest heavily in the development of one specific propulsion technology, and mandate fuel economy or emissions standards that could favor a particular technology or require a minimum sales penetration level for vehicles with a designated technology. Given the size and growth rate of the Chinese auto market, such a coordinated regulatory environment might allow Chinese companies to achieve economies of scale and drive down the cost of alternative-energy vehicles.

Green Car Congress

=> J.D. Power forecasts hybrid- and battery-electric vehicles will represent 7.3% of global auto sales in 2020.

Green and Connected: CAR White Paper Explores Interaction of Vehicle Communications and Electrification of Powertrains

The Center for Automotive Research (CAR) has released a review draft of a white paper prepared for the Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT) that explores the interactions between what it calls “two of the most important developments in automotive technology underway”: the introduction of vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communications; and the electrification of the powertrain.

The purpose of the paper (which Richard Wallace, CAR’s Director Transportation Systems Analysis Group announced during a session exploring the same topic at the Business of Plugging In 2010 conference in Detroit) is threefold. CAR and MDOT first want to document the interactions between communication and electrification technologies, showing how their simultaneous development enhances both. Second, they are seeking to outline the technical, regulatory, and other factors that are needed to allow these technologies to achieve wide deployment and for the traveling public to realize their full benefits. Third, they want to explore opportunities for the State of Michigan to establish leadership and benefit the state’s economy and industry.

Vehicle communications technology is exemplified by the IntelliDrive program of the US Department of Transportation. The category includes vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) connectivity (communication of the vehicle with the roadway, traffic signals, and other pieces of infrastructure, such as bridges) and vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) connectivity.

Although vehicle communication offers the potential for all forms of alternative and advanced powertrains to become more efficient, the report notes, grid-enabled vehicles—GEVs, i.e. plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), extended range electric vehicles (EREVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs)—potentially offer the greatest opportunity to capitalize on connectivity.

The grid-enable vehicle could become the communication focal point for a fully integrated energy system, the report suggests, with the vehicle integrating electric power generation and grid, homes, and the transportation infrastructure.

CAR defines three levels of connectedness:

• Simple transportation energy planning and mapping. This includes route planning to optimize efficiency, range estimation, and identification of refueling locations.
• The initial grid-enabled model. Specific to GEVs, this requires smart meters either at the charging point or on the vehicle to connect the vehicle to the energy delivery system. Applications can include grid-balancing strategies, service area charging and tracking, and vehicle charging monitoring and control strategies.
• The integrated energy transportation efficiency model. This requires the inclusion of smart grid management, and vehicle-to-grid storage strategies. Full communication between the vehicle and IntelliDrive systems, could enable to exploit the full potential of efficient driving.

There are numerous barriers to implementation, the report notes: logistical (e.g., infrastructure and standards); technical (e.g., battery capacity and cost), political, and workforce-related.

Green Car Congress

=> Green and Connected: CAR White Paper Explores Interaction of Vehicle Communications and Electrification of Powertrains.

Initial Results of UK EV Driver Study Show Increased Confidence and Low Cost Recharging

Six months into the CABLED trial (Coventry and Birmingham Low Emission Demonstrators) (earlier post), Aston University’s research reveals that drivers are travelling more miles more frequently and are undertaking longer journeys, indicating increased confidence and notably reduced ‘range anxiety’.

The percentage of journeys exceeding 45 miles grew from 3% to 5% between quarter 1 and 2 of 2010. Over the same period the average daily miles recorded increased by more than 2 miles and the maximum daily mileage recorded increased from 100.53 to 124.42 miles. The average cost to trial participants for recharging at home is between 25p and £1 (US$0.40 and $1.60) per day.

The data analyzed by Aston University combines and compares the behavior patterns of 25 Mitsubishi i-MiEV drivers over two consecutive quarters. The results form part of the CABLED project, which will see an overall total of 110 ultra low carbon vehicles from different manufacturers, tested on the roads of Birmingham and Coventry as part of a £7.5-million (US$11.9-million) year-long Government scheme.

Each vehicle in the CABLED trial is fitted with GPS and data logger, designed and installed by Coventry based RDM Automotive. These record the usage, location and charging habits of each vehicle. From this data the following information can be analysed:

• Frequency of individual journeys
• Length and duration of journeys
• Date and time of journeys
• Energy used per journey
• Duration and amount of energy transferred during charge
• External temperature
• Location of charging/parking, i.e. home, work, public etc.
• Average speed

This data will also be used to map out a future network of electric charging points, to further extend range and improve the convenience of electric vehicles.

The CABLED results at this stage show that:

• A Mitsubishi i-MiEV can travel around 80 miles when fully charged and on average, drivers are using less than 30% of their total vehicle charge in a typical daily use.
• The average charge time per i-MiEV vehicle is two hours. This provides sufficient charge for between 20-40 miles of travel at a cost of between 40p to £1, depending on the tariff.
• Drivers habitually charge their vehicles, whether the battery is half full or nearly empty, in much the same way as a laptop or mobile phone, which will influence the next generation of battery technology that is incorporated into these vehicles.
• The most popular time to charge vehicles is overnight but as around eight in 10 journeys use less than 18% of the battery and five average length journeys could be completed on one charge, there is now evidence to support the need for intelligent technology that will allow electric vehicles to interact with the national grid.

Collecting real-world analysis of electric vehicles is essential in understanding actual demands and requirements of low carbon vehicles for consumers. The journey data gathered is already showing that the current generation of vehicles are cheap to run as well as being comparable to petrol and diesel vehicles for speed, ease of use and daily journey distance.

—Brian Price, lecturer in Engineering Systems and Management at Aston

Project Leader from CABLED co-ordinating partner Arup believes the data presents a positive outlook for the mass take-up of electric vehicles.

The phenomenon known as ‘range anxiety’—concern about battery life when undertaking long journeys—is falling as drivers become more familiar with their vehicles. The low cost of ‘refuelling’ in relatively short periods of time reinforce this. While there are technical challenges ahead—such as extending vehicle range and making provision for an increased demand on the national grid—our results show that even current EVs are more than capable of meeting users’ day-to-day needs.

—Neil Butcher

The West Midlands CABLED consortium comprises 13 organizations, led by Arup. Part funding for the project came from the regional development agency, Advantage West Midlands.

Each of the six vehicle manufacturers—Jaguar/Land Rover, Mitsubishi/Colt, Mercedes Benz/smart, Tata Motors, LTI and Microcab Industries—are contributing their own vehicles towards the low carbon scheme, which includes a mix of fully electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids and hydrogen fuel cell cars.

Electricity providers E.ON are delivering charging points for the trial with assistance from the city councils of Birmingham and Coventry. In total, over 340 cars being trialed in several regions across the UK.

Green Car Congress

=> Initial Results of UK EV Driver Study Show Increased Confidence and Low Cost Recharging.

Reduced CO2 Emissions Should Start With Electric Cars

A comprehensive study has concluded the best way to reduce U.S. oil demand and carbon emissions would be an aggressive push towards electric vehicles.

The study from the Baker Institute Energy Forum was comprised of several academic papers on a variety of topics pertaining to reduction of carbon emissions. Among them were carbon pricing, the wind industry, global U.S. carbon and energy strategies, and renewable energy research and development. The results of the study are being presented at the Baker Institute Energy Forum Sept. 27-28.

Among the studies there were none that addressed electric cars specifically; what the researchers did was look at the greatest carbon reductions and try different methods of getting there.  Electric cars were found to be the most effective way to reduce carbon emissions in the shortest time. The study found if there were a mandate requiring 30 percent of all vehicles to be electric by 2050, it would reduce U.S. oil use by 2.5 million barrels a day.

This would be in addition to the three million barrels-per-day savings already expected from new corporate standards for average fuel efficiency. The switch to using that many electric cars would cut emissions seven percent, while the proposed renewable portfolio standard for other kinds of energy use would only cut it by four percent.

“Eight percent isn’t a dramatic CO2 reduction, but in comparison with the other methods, it better achieves those goals,” said James Coan, research associate at The Baker Institute.

Coan said researchers from The Baker Institute are eager to see whether the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan Leaf, two newer electric cars on the market, sell well. There are two factors holding back widespread adoption of electric cars: cost of ownserhip and infrastructure.

“In both the Volt and the Leaf, the battery costs are quite high. We’re interested to see how low they can get. Infrastructure is another constraint especially if you have to plug it in. It might not be that dramatic, but if they are significantly more expensive to operate than an internal combustion engine, that will inhibit market penetration alone.”

Coan said if manufacturers can figure out a way to design the electric car with lower costs then it should become more attractive to consumers. He said regulatory policies that favor electric vehicles from the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration will also help. “If they have a standard of about 50-60 miles a gallon, plug in hybrids will be attractive,” he said.

Electric Vehicle IT Systems Forecast to Hit $5.1 Billion Buy 2015

BOULDER, Colo. — With more than 3 million electric vehicles (EVs) expected to be driving the world’s roads by 2015, utilities will face a host of new infrastructure requirements to support the increased power demand that will result from customers plugging in to recharge. The majority of EV service equipment (EVSE) will be networked and managed via information technology (IT) and communications systems that will aggregate power demand and enable a coordinated response to changing grid conditions. According to a new report from Pike Research, these needs will drive significant investment in electric vehicle IT systems, which will reach a cumulative total of $5.1 billion during the period from 2010 to 2015.

“Electric vehicle IT systems are necessary since utilities will face an immediate impact from EV charging on their localized power distribution equipment,” says senior analyst John Gartner. “During the early part of the decade, EV charging will not interfere with utilities’ overall ability to keep up with total electricity demand, but certain neighborhood transformers and other distribution assets could be quickly overwhelmed in areas with rapid EV adoption.”

Gartner adds that a variety of companies will be active in the EV IT sector including automakers, EVSE vendors, smart grid integration providers, energy services companies, systems integrators, and utilities themselves. However, Gartner cautions, the implementation of EV IT systems will be slowed by a lack of standards for storing data and sharing information between utilities and external systems. The automotive, home networking, smart grid, and utility industries are collaborating with organizations, such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), to develop standards to establish first-time interoperability with grid equipment, but many of these standards will not be completed until 2012 or later.

Pike Research’s report, “Electric Vehicle Information Technology Systems,” analyzes the IT requirements and market opportunities associated with managing EV charging and the interaction with grid resources. The report provides a comprehensive examination of the information and communications systems for EV enablement within the utility grid infrastructure. It includes forecasts through 2015 for investment in EV information and communication technology in world regions, along with profiles of key industry players. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm’s website.

Pike Research is a market research and consulting firm that provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The company’s research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy, Clean Transportation, Clean Industry, and Building Efficiency sectors. For more information, visit www.pikeresearch.com or call +1.303.997.4619.

EVWorld

http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=24061

IDC Energy Insights Forecasts Plug-in Vehicle Market to Reach 2.7M Cumulative Units By 2015; Revenue Opportunity for Utilities

IDC Energy Insights forecasts that by 2015 there will be more than 2.7 million PEVs plugged into the global grid, with 885,000 PEVs in North America and more than 780,000 PEVs in Europe.

Unfortunately, IDC says, these vehicles will “cause havoc” on the distribution grid if they start appearing without any preparation by grid managers.

PEVs are coming. Despite many doubters, this oft-promised technology is finally on the verge of becoming a reality, with more than 540,000 vehicles to be sold globally by 2012. The electric utilities industry does not have the luxury of taking a wait-and-see approach to PEVs: it must begin to prepare for their arrival now.

—IDC Energy Insights Research Manager Sam Jaffe

These cars, or “mobile appliances” as the industry should think of them, also represent a significant new source of revenue and, if handled correctly, profit, as well as the chance to run the night-time generation queue more efficiently, according to IDC.

PEVs represent a significant revenue opportunity for electric utilities. But they also bring challenges such as the potential of transformer overload due to PEV clustering and excessive energy borrowing when cars roam outside of their utility region. It is best for utilities to prepare for these potential pitfalls today, instead of waiting for when the trickle of PEVs becomes a flood. We believe the utilities that prepare for this new reality will be the ones that win in the long term.

—Sam Jaffe

The first report of two on the subject, Business Strategy: The Coming Electric Vehicle Rollout: Forecasting the Market, forecasts the size and timing of the PEV rollout in North America, Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world. Included are forecasts of electric vehicle sales from 2011-2015 and PEV penetration scenarios from 2015-2020. The report also provides an overview of soon-to-be-launched PEV models.

The second report, The Coming Electric Vehicle Rollout Part 2: Challenges and Opportunities for Electric Utilities, provides an overview of the challenges utilities will face, citing the likely requirement of significant upgrades in distribution equipment, from the addition of separate metering apparatus to the installation of advanced transformers that can handle the increased load on a particular line. Utilities will also need to address the creation of novel rate structures that allow the utility to control how and when the vehicles are charged.

Green Car Congress

=> IDC Energy Insights Forecasts Plug-in Vehicle Market to Reach 2.7M Cumulative Units By 2015; Revenue Opportunity for Utilities.

Verify Markets claims electric vehicle charging industry will top $3b by 2017

GE WattStation – Click above for high-res image gallery

Dishing out $5,000 to read a report on the future of the electrical vehicle charging industry is not something that we often do around here. In fact, we’d never dish out that kind of dough to pour over some predictions based on speculation, forecasting models and perhaps some less-than-educated guesses. Paying for a just-released market research report with dubious predictions that reach seven years into the future doesn’t seem like a wise investment. That’s why when we heard that Verify Markets, a relatively unknown name in the automotive market research category, wants $5,000 to view its North American eMobility report, we held ourselves back and instead skimmed over the firm’s charging industry outline, which reads like this:

The market is expected to reach unit shipments of 2.8 million by 2017, with over 85% of unit sales comprised of residential and multi-unit housing chargers. The level three charging industry, which will follow right behind the level two infrastructure, is expected to have over 10,000 unit shipments by 2017 and revenues of over $250 million on unit installations alone. Competition in the industry will pick up drastically over the next two to three years when several major players, including ABB, General Electric, Eaton, and Leviton, are expected to have some type of product in the market. Greater competition will increase the downward price pressure of EV chargers. This will likely decrease unit price by 50% in three to five years.

There, we just saved you $5,000 and hours of time. Still, if you’d rather read the whole thing, then head over to Verify Market’s site, pay five grand and let us know all about it.

AutoblogGreen

=> Verify Markets claims electric vehicle charging industry will top $3b by 2017.

Auto industry analyst predicts well have more than 100 hybrid and EV models in U.S. by 2015

Forecasting the future of the automotive market ain’t no easy task. The complex forces at work, including widely ranging government incentives and automaker’s often-rosy outlooks, make predicting the future for emerging technologies all the more difficult. Will hybrids be a boon to the automotive industry? Will electric vehicles bomb? Predictions regarding the automotive industry’s future are simply guesses based on some facts, complex tracking of trends, significant speculation and, sometimes, lies. With all this in mind, we now turn our attention to Alan Baum, a Michigan-based auto industry analyst who has predicted the future of the industry for nearly 30 years. Baum’s expertise is hard to question and his forecasting model is unorthodox, but remember, even the best laid plans don’t always yield accurate results.

Baum predicts a burgeoning market for advanced technology vehicles. Within the next five years, Baum forecasts that we’ll see more than 50 conventional hybrid models, over 30 electric vehicle models, almost 20 plug-in hybrid models and even a few fuel cell models in production. The folks over at Hybrid Cars provided a breakdown of the vehicles that Baum believes we’ll see in the next five years:

Baum is tracking a whopping 108 electric-drive vehicles by model year 2015. That’s up from 22 grid-free hybrids and one electric car, the Tesla Roadster, in production today. There will be 27 new model introductions for the model year 2011 alone-effectively doubling the number of hybrids and plug-ins in a single year. Baum indicates that the 2011 U.S. line-up will add 13 conventional hybrids, 3 plug-in hybrids, and 11 battery electric cars. By the model year 2015, the new car market will have 108 electric-drive models. Nearly half of them will be conventional hybrids, but there will also be 18 plug-in hybrids, 32 EVs, and 6 fuel-cell electric cars.

Baum is quick to point out that many of the vehicles that he tracks, have not been announced by automakers. Again, it’s a prediction, which involves educated guesses, statistical analysis and perhaps even some voodoo magic. Baum wrapped up this round of forecasting by predicting that advanced technology vehicles could account for as much as five percent of annual sales in the U.S. by 2015. That amounts to nearly one million hybrids and EVs sold per year. We sure hope he’s right.

AutoblogGreen

=> Auto industry analyst predicts well have more than 100 hybrid and EV models in U.S. by 2015.

User Results from First Phase of the MINI E Field Trial in the UK

As the second half of the twelve-month MINI E field trial begins in the UK this week, BMW has released an overview of the outcome of interviews and objective data collected from the first three months of the December to June 2010 phase of the trial. (Earlier post.)

In summary, users liked MINI E’s lack of noise, the convenience of home charging, low off peak power charges, not having to go to a gasoline station and queue, driving a zero emissions vehicle, MINI E’s acceleration characteristics and regenerative braking. Drawbacks include current mileage range for certain journeys, limited carrying capacity and sub-optimal car performance during the extremely cold weather conditions in December 2009 and January 2010.

The MINI E is a two-seat development of the MINI Hatch. It is powered by a 204 hp (152 kW) electric motor that also generates 220 N·m (162 lb-ft) of torque. It is powered by a 35 kWh Lithium-Ion battery pack containing 5,088 cells. The battery can be charged by a special home charger supplied by consortium partner Scottish and Southern Energy. This enables a charge time of 2.4 hours at 50 amps. The MINI E has a top speed of 95 mph (153 km/h) and an official range of 149 miles (240 km) according to FTP72 standards, although a realistic range is 112 miles (180 km), according to BMW.

The UK field trials mirror those taking place concurrently on the East and West coasts of the USA and in both Munich and Berlin. In the UK 40 examples of the MINI E have been operating for six months from late December 2009 until June 2010, 20 being private individuals and the balance with corporate customers. The 40 MINI E Pioneers were selected from applicants in the South East of England.

They are predominantly highly-educated males aged 35 and over, earning above average income and with a high level of interest in ecological issues. A second group of 40 take the MINI Es over in September 2010 and will run the cars in normal road conditions until March 2011.

The key findings from the first six months of the UK field trial are as follows:

• MINI E usage differs only marginally from a control group of MINI Cooper and BMW 116i drivers in terms of average journey distance, daily mileage and frequency of use.
• Before the trials began, users expected limitations in terms of range and charging times. In practice these have only proved to be barriers in a very few specific cases.
• Users felt reassured that both the MINI E itself and the charging process are completely safe.
• There was a very strong feeling from both private and fleet users that renewable energy should play an important role in future electricity generation. There was also a strong feeling that the battery of an electric vehicle (EV) should be charged using renewables to optimize the ecological advantages of an EV.
• The BMW Group is trusted to provide a technically mature solution to the challenges presented by EVs.
• Users reported a need for more interior space for journeys requiring more passengers and more storage capacity.
• Users felt strongly that public charging facilities for EVs were desirable and even essential. However, at the same time, the majority claimed that they coped without public charging facilities.

MINI E average trip distance mirrors that of cars in the same segment. The National Travel Survey reveals that the average single trip length for car users in the UK is 8.6 miles (13.8 km), a distance almost exactly matched by MINI E drivers at 8.5 miles (13.7 km). Using the same survey data, 90% of all trips are 15 miles (24 km) or under, while another 8% are between 20 and 35 miles (32 and 56 km). Only two percent are above 35 miles.

Using a control group of MINI Cooper and BMW 116i customers these statistics are reinforced, MINI Cooper drivers averaging 7.3 miles (11.8 km) and 116i drivers only 6.8 miles (10.9 km). The conclusion to be drawn from this is that there are no objective limitations on average daily use for MINI E drivers.

The same conclusions can be drawn by analysing average daily distance driven. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirms that 22.8 miles (36.7 km) is the average private daily mileage across the UK. For MINI Cooper and 116i it is 27.0 and 26.1 miles (43.5 and 42 km) respectively while, again, MINI E experience slots right in the middle at 26.7 miles (43 km). The conclusion is that MINI E daily driving use matches cars in a similar segment almost exactly.

Reasons for non-use. Reasons quoted by users for not using their MINI E were for longer journeys (89% said this had occurred for them) and limited space, either for carrying shopping or because they needed more than two seats. Lack of space was quoted by 67% of users for not using MINI E on odd occasions. These are characteristics that the future Megacity vehicle will address, BMW said.

Charged experiences. The process of charging MINI E from the charging box supplied and fitted at users’ homes was convenient and appreciated by the MINI E pioneers. On average the cars were charged every two to three days. Two-thirds of users charged their car three times a week or less while only six percent charged daily. Users quickly adapted to charging overnight when electricity costs are cheaper and it also suited the daily routine of the drivers.

When asked whether users saw a need for a public charging infrastructure 87.5% agreed that it is necessary, with only 12.5% seeing no need. However 75% of all users also said they could use their MINI E without a comprehensive charging infrastructure.

In summary, the home charging was seen as safe and easy to operate, users easily adapted to a charging routine and most charged their MINI E overnight. Actual charging times were seen as efficient with some users finding it more convenient than having to queue up at a gasoline station. Participants would like a public charging system but did not need to rely on one.

Renewable energy. All users, both fleet and private, feel that renewable energy generation should play an important role in future electricity generation. There is a similar agreement from users that it is important to charge the MINI E batteries with renewable energy with 100% of fleet users and 89% of private drivers holding this opinion. However, only 22% of private, and 72% of fleet, drivers thought that EVs should be exclusively powered by renewable energy.

Would they buy one? Would this early experience of MINI E encourage the pioneers to buy an electric vehicle? The initial conclusion from the first phase of the trial is a qualified ‘yes’. The MINI E drivers all appreciated the use of a zero-emissions car that removed emissions from their immediate environment, the reduced reliance on fossil fuels and the lower noise pollution inherent with an EV. They also appreciated the dynamic acceleration characteristics of MINI E and its regenerative braking performance.

However, both the current driving range and the carrying capacity for passengers and cargo are viewed as limiting factors. Also, the sub-optimal performance of the car in very cold weather needs improvement.

On balance, though, all were convinced about the viability of electric vehicles in an everyday UK road environment and all claimed that taking part in this study had increased their enthusiasm to buy an EV as well as reducing the time frame in which they plan to do so, according to BMW.

Like all drivers their purchase intentions are price-sensitive. However, almost half of the users stated that they would pay one third more than a conventional MINI in order to benefit from the advantages of a more sustainable form of personal mobility. This implies a UK acceptable price of around £16,000 (US$24,700). The strength of purchase intention would be increased with improvements to luggage and passenger space.

The early learning from this first stage of the MINI E trials has given us very positive feedback and pointers as to where we will need to improve. One has to remember that MINI E, despite being very thoroughly engineered for its task, is in the end a modified existing production MINI Hatch. An EV designed from the ground up will be able to address some of the criticism on packaging and driving range. That is precisely the reason we are holding these trials.

—Jochen Goller, Director of MINI UK

The MINI E field trial is informing the design and development process for the upcoming Megacity EV, due to be launched in 2013. (Earlier post.)

Green Car Congress

=> User Results from First Phase of the MINI E Field Trial in the UK.

CEA survey shows 40% of Americans hope to test drive electric vehicles, but only 25% know anything about them

Next year’s 2011 International Consumers Electronics Show(CES), produced by the Consumers Electronics Association(CEA), will, for the first time ever, showcase a full range of electric vehicles (EVs), charging equipment and energy storage devices. In order to better understand America’s perception of EVs, the CEA’s market research division conducted an online consumer study titled “Electric Vehicles: The Future of Driving.” The study concludes that while many Americans may be intrigued to try out EVs, very few know much about them.

We’ve gleaned a few numbers from the study for you to ponder, but there’s much more info found after the jump. Here’s a look at some of the results:

• Forty percent of consumers report they are likely to test drive an electric vehicle.
• Consumers are open to considering an electric vehicle in the future, with 42% reporting they are likely to follow news reports about electric vehicles.
• One-third (32%) report they are familiar, or very familiar, with hybrid vehicles, only about one-quarter are familiar with electric-powered vehicles (25%).
• More than three-quarters of those surveyed (78%) said the vehicle’s ability to run without gasoline is the greatest advantage, followed by less pollution (67%), and the lack of need for oil changes and tune-ups (60%).
• Consumers perceive several disadvantages about electric vehicles. Concerns about mileage potential before needing to recharge (50%) and battery life (34%) top the list.
• The study finds running out of battery power on the road (71%), lack of charging stations and/or not being able to recharge (66%) and limited mileage (59%) are the most common perceived disadvantages with electric vehicles.

While 40 percent of those surveyed want to drive an EV, we find it rather odd that only 25 percent seem to know a darn thing about them. Even more surprising, those surveyed typically pointed out some possible disadvantages of EVs that we are all familiar with – range, battery life, being stranded, etc… – yet the majority of respondents claim to have no familiarity with EVs. Seems kind of odd, doesn’t it? Follow the jump for more from the CEA’s recent study.

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=> CEA survey shows 40% of Americans hope to test drive electric vehicles, but only 25% know anything about them.

Study: China to gain top spot in electric vehicle sales by 2015; U.S. will remain hybrid haven

BYD E6 – Click above for high-res image gallery

With the Chinese government recently announcing plans to invest a whopping 100 billion yuan ($14.7 billion U.S. at the current exchange rate) into the development and production of alternative energy vehicles, and with the bulk majority of the funds reportedly earmaked for electric vehicles (EVs), it now appears China will soon lead the world in EV sales. A recent study, conducted by Pike Research, predicts that China will have at least one million EVs on their roads by 2015. The same study suggests that the U.S. will lag behind slightly, with only 840,000 plug-ins scattered across our nation’s highways and byways by then. We may be in second place, but an average of 168,000 plug-in vehicles sold a year for the next five years is pretty remarkable.

China may be projected to reign EV supreme, but Pike says the U.S. will become the world’s hottest hybrid market. The study predicts that hybrid sales in China will only reach 850,000 units from now until 2015. Meanwhile, the U.S. is expected to tally an astounding 2.3 million hybrid sales within that time.

China’s $14.7 billion investment makes our government’s commitment of $2.5 billion look comparatively small. The study suggests that China’s substantial EV incentives, coupled with the fact that many first-time car buyers are entering its automotive market, will help to quickly push the nation’s EV sales right on past the U.S.

AutoblogGreen

=> Study: China to gain top spot in electric vehicle sales by 2015; U.S. will remain hybrid haven.

Study: Modern li-ion batteries have little effect on life cycle impact of electric cars

By now we’re all aware that the environmental impact of cars and trucks goes well beyond the emissions produced during operation. There is the energy used to produce and dispose of the vehicles and their components, for example, and the cost of getting the fuel for the vehicles out of the ground and into the tank. The impact of making nickel metal hydride batteries for hybrid and electric vehicles (EVs) was the center-piece of a controversial study published by CNW several years ago. That study claimed that a Hummer H2 had less of an environmental impact than a Toyota Prius in large part because of pollution resulting from nickel mining in Canada.

A new life cycle study conducted by the Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (EMPA) has come to a very different conclusion after evaluating the latest lithium-ion batteries developed specifically for automotive applications. These new batteries only account for about 15 percent of the total impact of an electric vehicle over its lifespan when the mining, refining, manufacturing and disposal are factored in. The vast majority of the vehicle’s overall energy footprint results from actual operation of the vehicle; in the case of an EV, this mostly means how much it takes to charge the battery.

If an EV is charged by the typical mix of nuclear, coal and hydroelectric power found in Europe, an internal combustion vehicle would need to achieve between 59 and 78 miles per gallon to have a comparable impact. There are several diesel-powered small cars available in Europe that already hit those kinds of numbers, including the Ford Fiesta ecoNetic and Volkswagen Polo Bluemotion. If the electricity production mix shifts more toward coal, the energy balance gets significantly worse for a plug-in car, while an generation profile with a larger percentage of hydro or other renewable sources clearly improves the picture in the EV’s favor. Still, a baseline target of 59 to 78 mpg is a good one for liquid-fuel vehicle fans to consider.

AutoblogGreen

=> Study: Modern li-ion batteries have little effect on life cycle impact of electric cars.

Forecast: 3.2M Plug-in Electric Vehicles to be Sold Worldwide between 2010 and 2015; More Than 1M PEVs in 2015

According to a new report from Pike Research, worldwide adoption of plug-in hybrid (PHEVs) and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) will grow quickly over the next five years, with sales totaling 3.2 million vehicles between 2010 and 2015 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 107% and 106% CAGR, respectively, between 2010 and 2015. Pike forecasts that sales of such plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) will reach just over 1 million units in five years (1,081,294 vehicles in 2015), with PHEVs accounting for 44% of that amount. (As a point of reference, Nissan anticipates global light-duty vehicle sales of 70 million units this year. Earlier post.)

Pike also forecasts that “traditional” hybrid models will remain important in the next several years as OEMs look to the technology as a tool to meet increasingly tight fuel economy and emissions regulations without adding substantial cost to the vehicle. Pike anticipates HEV growth of 12.7% CAGR between 2010 and 2015 (compared to 4.8% CAGR for the overall light-duty vehicle market).

PHEVs and BEVs will complement, rather than displacing, the market for conventional hybrid electric vehicles. Electric vehicles will follow the lead of hybrids and will be launched in the small car segment for consumer markets initially, with the small SUV segment close behind. Because of their low weight and good aerodynamics, smaller vehicles are far more efficient to better extend the electrically powered driving range, and the smaller vehicle segments also allow the use of a smaller, less expensive battery.

—senior analyst Dave Hurst

Pike expects that the 107% CAGR for the PHEV market will result in global sales of 472,612 units in 2015. Pike Research anticipates that the United States will lead in terms of PHEV volume, with 204,110 PHEVs sold in 2015, followed distantly by Japan with 62,143 units.

While China’s government has been very supportive of PHEVs, Pike Research anticipates that BEVs will capture significant volume in that country. Pike anticipates sales of BEVs in China will reach 262,203 vehicles in 2015 (compared to 47,982 PHEVs) due to strong government support for both battery manufacturers and automakers as well as a population that is familiar with both small vehicles and vehicles that need to be plugged in (electric bicycles and motorcycles).

Overall, Pike projects that China will be the largest market for plug-in electric vehicles, with more than 888,000 PHEVs and BEVs sold by 2015, representing 27% of worldwide sales. The United States will be close behind with 841,000 vehicles sold, or 26% of the global market, according to the report.

Green Car Congress

=> Forecast: 3.2M Plug-in Electric Vehicles to be Sold Worldwide between 2010 and 2015; More Than 1M PEVs in 2015.

ChargeCar: help crowdsource plug-in vehicle power management strategies, win an electric car

Want to win an electric car? We don’t know what kind or any important detail like that, but the thrill here is the hunt, not the kill. We’re talking about a new contest being run by Carnegie Mellon University’s electric car conversion project, ChargeCar, that will award an electric car to the person who can find the the most efficient method for managing power in electric vehicles. Illah Nourbakhsh, associate professor of robotics and director of the Robotics Institute’s CREATE Lab, said he believes it is only the wisdom of the masses that will provide ChargeCar with the best power management algorithm:

The number of variables that could possibly affect an electric car’s performance and the strain on its batteries is virtually infinite. Crowdsourcing is our best hope for sifting through those variables to find the optimal method for managing the flow of current between the motor and the power storage system. A contest seems the best way to draw a crowd and tap its wisdom.

ChargeCar is all about crowdsourcing data and making it publicly available. The graph above, for example, shows that the typical urban commute is just six kilometers (just under four miles) and that most are under 35 kilometers (22 miles). This information was gleaned from thousands of trips logged by volunteers. Another ChargeCar project is testing to see if using low-cost lead acid batteries coupled with a supercapacitor is a good way to provide power to an EV.

AutoblogGreen

=> ChargeCar: help crowdsource plug-in vehicle power management strategies, win an electric car.

Study Finds Combination of Second-Generation Biofuels, Vehicle Efficiency and Electromobility Could Sustainably Replace Up To 40-45% of Swiss Fossil Fuel Requirements

Up to 40-45% of fossil fuel use for transportation in Switzerland could be replaced by 2030 through a combination of second-generation biofuels, increased vehicle efficiency, and electromobility, according to the most optimistic scenario in a study carried out for TA-SWISS, the Swiss Centre for Technology Assessment, by an interdisciplinary team headed by Dr. Rainer Zah from the Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research Empa in Dübendorf.

The 40% replacement figure in 2030 is based on average vehicle fuel consumption of 4L/100km (58.8 mpg US); electric cars having an almost 40% share of the entire vehicle fleet; and about 19% of the fuel used being of organic origin (mainly domestically produced biomethane gas and imported BTL fuel). Pushing vehicle efficiency to 3L/100km (78.4 mpg US) would result in a total 45% displacement of fossil fuels.

It also assumes that the lower fuel consumption would not be (over)compensated by more frequent and longer journeys. In Switzerland, 56.5 billion vehicle kilometers will be travelled in 2010; the study assumes an increase in that to 66 billion vehicle kilometers by the year 2030.

The study examined the well-to-wheels life cycle impact of biofuels, and also estimated the extent to which biofuels might be able to replace fossil fuels in Switzerland, under three scenarios.

Among the findings of the study, presented in Bern on 29 June, is that the most environmentally friendly biofuels are primarily those which are manufactured using waste products and left-over materials such as green waste, saw-mill waste and waste wood.

When crops are grown in developing countries specifically for the production of biofuels, then the disadvantages dominate the equation, because they compete with crops for food production and thus increase the pressure on the natural ecosystem. And since in Switzerland only a limited amount of waste material is available, even in the best case biofuels would only be able to provide about 8% of the fuel requirements, all other things being constant.

However, Zah says that the team’s findings should not be interpreted as a reason for giving up the support of biofuels development through public funding.

That would be a short-sighted reaction. Even though the proportion of locally produced biofuel is modest, it is still equivalent to the annual energy consumption of more than a million single-family houses.

—Rainer Zah

The more important question, he suggests, is how to diversify the energy supply for the mobility sector, or in other words how to ensure that the most appropriate drive technology is used for various travel needs—long distance journeys, urban mobility, freight transport and so on.

In parallel, the priority is to increase vehicle efficiency but also to extend the electromobility network.

The question is not whether electromobility, improved vehicle efficiency or support for sustainable biofuel development should be allocated the highest priority. Far more important is that we have to find ways to ensure that all three approaches make significant progress and then apply them where they bring the most benefit.

—Rainer Zah

Resources

• R. Zah, C. Binder, S. Bringezu, J. Reinhard, A. Schmid, H. Schuetz. Future Perspectives of 2^ndGeneration Biofuels, Edited by TA-SWISS—the Swiss Centre for Technology Assessment, published by Hochschulverlag AG der ETH Zürich, 2010. ISBN 978-3-7281-3334-2.

Green Car Congress

=> Study Finds Combination of Second-Generation Biofuels, Vehicle Efficiency and Electromobility Could Sustainably Replace Up To 40-45% of Swiss Fossil Fuel Requirements.